Daily Market Update
April 15, 2026EUR/USD ranged from the mid to high 1.17’s overnight. The EUR/USD pair trades at around 1.1800 for the first time since last February, as optimism heavily weighs on the US Dollar (USD) demand.
Investors welcome news that the United States (US) and Iran will return to the negotiating table in Islamabad later this week or early next week, which means that, at least for the next few days, tensions won’t escalate.
Meanwhile, the US sustains a blockage of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, after also increasing its military deployment in the region, prompting complaints from Chinese authorities, which called it a “dangerous and irresponsible act.”
Indeed, the truce is fragile, but as long as it remains in place, financial markets are likely to trade with more confidence.
On the data front, the US offered some relevant figures. On the one hand, the ADP National Employment Report (NER) showed that, for the four weeks ending March 28, private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week, posting a fourth consecutive week of strong job creation.
On the other hand, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose by less than anticipated. The annual reading came in at 4%, lower than the expected 4.6% but higher than the previous 3.4%.
Core annual wholesale inflation, according to the PPI estimate, printed at 3.8%, matching the February revised figure, but below the expected 4%. The figures maintained the USD on the bearish side.
The GBP/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s strong move up of around 125-pips and gaining some follow-through traction on Tuesday.
This marks the seventh straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices to the 1.3535-1.3540 region, or the highest since February 26, during the first half of the European session.
Despite failed US-Iran peace talks over the weekend, investors continue to move towards riskier assets amid hopes that the door for diplomacy remains open and that negotiations would continue.
This, in turn, undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and acts as a tailwind for the currency pair.
US Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone on negotiations with Iran and suggested during an interview on Fox News that meaningful progress has been made even as talks have yet to deliver a breakthrough.
Vance further added that the framework for a comprehensive agreement is achievable if Iran is willing to take the next step. Moreover, Reuters reported that negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Islamabad for another round of peace talks this week.
The optimism, along with the uncertainty over future interest rate moves by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), drag the USD to its lowest level since early March and remains supportive of the bid tone surrounding the GBP/USD pair.
US President Trump has shown optimism about the war ending “very soon”, following comments suggesting that the US and Iran delegations might return to the conversation table in the coming days.
Later on Wednesday, a report by Associated Press (AP) said that mediators are moving closer to extending the two-week ceasefire that expires next week.
The US military, on the other hand, announced earlier on the day that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had been “fully implemented”, a measure that Iran condemned as “illegal and amounting to piracy.”
Apart from that, the Washington Post reported that the US administration is considering the deployment of thousands of additional troops to the Middle East.
Currency analysts at the United Overseas Bank (UOB), however, expect the pair to extend its broader bearish trend, aiming to 158.00 in the coming weeks: “Yesterday, USD broke slightly below 158.70 as it dropped to a low of 158.59.
Downward momentum is starting to build, and USD could potentially drop below 158.50 and test 158.00. To sustain the buildup in momentum, USD must hold below the ‘strong resistance’ level, now at 159.50.”
Source FX Street
